Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
89 0x8976…ebf3 other 112 markets active 14h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,427 (-1%) realized −$1,429 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%18W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$956per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$14
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$849
politics 37% −$44
sports 14% −$537
world 2% −$12
crypto 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 53 -2.0% -11.3% 8% 0% -10.7%
all 111 -6.4% -15.3% 16% 11% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 11% -10.7%
10% -23.4% 11% -19.3%
15% -30.8% 11% -27.1%
20% -37.6% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,382) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$23 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$535
Realized−$1,429
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses18 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage131d
Avg bet$956
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $533 $535 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,234 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,566 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,635 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,234 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $3,083 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,862 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 04 $112 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,124 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $104 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 28 $107 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,261 −$1 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 26 $778 −$778 -100%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $109 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,892 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,878 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,373 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,295 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $4,867 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 02 $525 +$1 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $370 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $483 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,116 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2,443 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $1,567 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $469 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $2,453 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 03 $1,484 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $3,937 −$4 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $481 14h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $482 16h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $425 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $425 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $483 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $484 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $489 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $490 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $482 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $483 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $533 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $528 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $528 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $831 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $832 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $862 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $864 13d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $839 14d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $840 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $865 19d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $867 19d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $706 21d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $707 21d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $706 21d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $707 21d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $910 21d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $911 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $846 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $847 22d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $606 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $534.72 · official $534.72 (match) · 393 history records