Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:41:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x8976…7367 sports 304 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,656 (+11%) realized +$13,664 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%119W / 183L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$414per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$1,773est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$415
14 days+$301
30 days+$8,494
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$13,355
other 1% −$692
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -23.6% -30.8% 40% 40% -24.2%
≤30d 85 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 42% +3.3%
≤90d 301 +6.1% -4.0% 39% 39% -0.7%
all 302 +6.6% -3.6% 39% 39% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 39% -0.7%
10% -12.8% 38% -10.2%
15% -21.2% 35% -18.9%
20% -29.0% 29% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$481 vs −$245 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized+$13,664
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses119 / 183
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,773
Open positions2
Markets (closed)302 / 304
History coverage91d
Avg bet$414
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B K27 52¢ 50¢ $234 $227 −$7 (-3%)
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Walczaki 51¢ 50¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $576 +$560 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,074 −$1,050 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $540 +$460 +85%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $388 −$379 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $660 +$640 +97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $75 +$30 +40%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $238 +$62 +26%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $374 +$96 +26%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,372 +$851 +62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $584 +$816 +140%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $195 −$192 -98%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $227 −$27 -12%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $311 +$155 +50%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $111 +$153 +138%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $251 +$749 +299%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $426 −$420 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $343 −$338 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $459 −$452 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $749 −$734 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $225 −$225 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $600 +$300 +50%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $269 −$265 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $283 −$278 -98%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $853 −$848 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $943 +$491 +52%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 08 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $104 −$104 -100%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 08 $103 −$101 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $69 −$67 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $190 +$310 +163%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,303 +$558 +43%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 08 $7,556 +$2,444 +32%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $509 −$499 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $3,433 +$1,567 +46%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $138 −$136 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,076 +$1,554 +144%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1,227 −$1,206 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $23 +$18 +79%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $466 −$459 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $163 −$160 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $464 +$836 +180%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $524 −$515 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $91 −$91 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $136 −$134 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $355 +$145 +41%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $254 +$246 +97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $756 +$244 +32%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $679 +$421 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 52¢ $237 1h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 51¢ $78 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $3 3d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $320 3d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $254 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 25¢ $31 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 25¢ $256 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 25¢ $143 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 25¢ $31 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 25¢ $256 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 25¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 25¢ $332 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $0 4d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $270 4d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $106 4d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $164 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $52 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $156 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $84 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $97 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $660 8d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 71¢ $75 8d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $135 8d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $238 8d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $238 8d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $251 9d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $491 9d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $629 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.50 · official $303.50 (match) · 988 history records