Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x897a…2bf3 crypto 428 markets active 6d ago coverage 515d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$426 (-13%) realized −$426 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%131W / 297L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$32
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$375
world 2% −$52
economics 1% −$8
other 1% −$17
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -22.7% -30.1% 25% 22% -29.5%
≤30d 77 -31.1% -37.6% 23% 22% -36.9%
≤90d 345 -9.7% -18.3% 33% 32% -20.0%
all 428 -11.5% -19.9% 31% 30% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 30% -22.5%
10% -27.6% 28% -29.9%
15% -34.6% 26% -36.7%
20% -41.0% 25% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

515d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$426
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses131 / 297
Open positions0
Markets (closed)428 / 428
History coverage515d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 428 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$5 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$6 +529%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$8 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$9 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$10 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1575 history records