Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:44:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
89 0x897c…a163 other 9 markets active 3d ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$360 (-17%) realized −$360 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$178
14 days−$372
30 days−$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$331
sports 2% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.9% -4.1% 71% 71% +24.0%
≤30d 9 -17.6% -25.4% 56% 56% +7.5%
≤90d 9 -17.6% -25.4% 56% 56% +7.5%
all 9 -17.6% -25.4% 56% 56% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 56% +7.5%
10% -32.6% 56% -2.8%
15% -39.1% 44% -12.2%
20% -45.1% 22% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$221 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$360
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage8d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $45 −$41 -91%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$18 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $679 −$648 -95%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $480 +$199 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $313 +$164 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $252 +$61 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$69 +46%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $99 −$99 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $95 −$95 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $41 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $26 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $679 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $679 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $480 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $313 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $252 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $4 10d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $95 10d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $95 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records