Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
89 0x897d…51ad crypto 1183 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (171 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$201 (+3%) realized +$192 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%599W / 510L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day171.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$420
7 days+$533
14 days+$533
30 days+$533
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$528
other 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (171 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1056 +4.0% -5.9% 54% 54% -2.2%
≤30d 1109 +3.4% -6.5% 54% 54% -2.4%
≤90d 1109 +3.4% -6.5% 54% 54% -2.4%
all 1109 +3.4% -6.5% 54% 54% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover171.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 54% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 54% -11.7%
15% -23.6% 54% -20.2%
20% -31.1% 54% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$192
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses599 / 510
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1109 / 1183
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day171.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 55¢ 99¢ $33 $59 +$26 (+80%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 51¢ 97¢ $30 $58 +$28 (+91%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 47¢ 26¢ $28 $15 −$13 (-46%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$26 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$32 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $24 +$36 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$26 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $27 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$31 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$26 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$31 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$26 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $62 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$31 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $29 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $34 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $34 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $28 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $34 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $24 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $33 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $33 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.57 · official $148.56 · 1901 history records