Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x897d…3c9e crypto 1095 markets active 7h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$447 (-7%) realized −$451 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%522W / 552L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$36
14 days−$62
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$390
other 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -5.0% -14.0% 53% 53% -19.5%
≤30d 1034 -3.6% -12.8% 49% 48% -15.3%
≤90d 1074 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 48% -15.2%
all 1074 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 48% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 48% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 48% -23.3%
15% -29.4% 47% -30.7%
20% -36.3% 46% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$451
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses522 / 552
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1074 / 1095
History coverage60d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1074 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 32¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 72¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +134%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 10h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $7 11h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $4 11h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $15 12h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $4 13h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $30 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 23h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 26h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $10 26h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 26h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $3 26h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $3 26h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.67 · official $204.67 (match) · 2058 history records