Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:27:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8981…ce82 other 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,494 (+9%) realized +$3,493 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate87%153W / 23L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 121d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$402
sports 11% −$144
world 2% +$55
tech 1% +$14
finance 1% +$12
politics 0% −$7
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +1.6% -8.1% 85% 34% -11.3%
≤30d 98 +6.3% -3.8% 86% 34% -10.8%
≤90d 104 +5.9% -4.2% 85% 34% -12.5%
all 176 +8.7% -1.7% 87% 28% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 28% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 11% -19.2%
15% -19.7% 8% -27.0%
20% -27.6% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$136 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$635
Realized+$3,493
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses153 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions13
Markets (closed)176 / 180
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$222
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $389 $390 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 92¢ 100¢ $74 $80 +$6 (+8%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? No 95¢ 99¢ $48 $49 +$2 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 93¢ 94¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-60%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netflix dip to $91 in November? Jun 19 $33 −$43 -130%
Will Netflix dip to $75.30 in November? Jun 19 $326 −$388 -119%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $4 +$4 +103%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $285 −$219 -77%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $103 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $98 +$25 +25%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +32%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $125 +$8 +6%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $2 +$2 +73%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $90 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $193 +$16 +8%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $146 +$17 +12%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $23 +$3 +12%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $110 +$1 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$16 +122%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $4 +$3 +77%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $160 +$19 +12%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $8 $0 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $94 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $192 +$8 +4%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $138 +$22 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $291 +$4 +2%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $79 +$5 +6%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $45 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $194 +$4 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $362 −$209 -58%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $400 +$60 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $331 +$38 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $159 +$32 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $213 +$15 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $612 −$68 -11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $213 −$183 -86%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $86 +$13 +15%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $61 +$18 +30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -62%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $112 +$12 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $75 +$5 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$30 +30%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $308 +$42 +14%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $179 +$7 +4%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $46 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 36¢ $2 18m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 20¢ $1 56m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 18¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 17¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 15¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 12¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 22¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 22¢ $3 3h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 34¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 22¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 22¢ $2 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 90¢ $8 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 94¢ $47 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 96¢ $18 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 96¢ $30 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 50¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 55¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 55¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 62¢ $12 3h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 67¢ $20 3h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 72¢ $22 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 68¢ $19 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 68¢ $22 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $634.59 · official $634.39 (match) · 3500 history records