Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
89 0x8983…d301 sports 331 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,374 (-1%) realized −$1,373 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%171W / 158L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$1,347est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days−$4,744
14 days−$3,691
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$3,151
crypto 2% +$367
other 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -35.4% -41.6% 30% 28% -42.1%
≤30d 134 +0.8% -8.8% 51% 48% -9.3%
≤90d 329 +0.3% -9.3% 52% 48% -12.2%
all 329 +0.3% -9.3% 52% 48% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 48% -12.2%
10% -18.0% 41% -20.6%
15% -25.9% 34% -28.3%
20% -33.1% 26% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$151 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$1,373
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses171 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,347
Open positions2
Markets (closed)329 / 331
History coverage56d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 329 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $104 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $253 +$16 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $20 +$28 +139%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 +$82 +165%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $165 −$83 -50%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $158 +$72 +46%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $76 −$69 -91%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $52 +$76 +146%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $168 +$133 +79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $112 +$56 +50%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $147 −$35 -24%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $114 −$113 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $21 +$20 +97%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $100 −$27 -27%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$29 -59%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $57 +$129 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 18 $147 −$147 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 18 $147 −$147 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $549 +$207 +38%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $60 −$59 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $267 +$152 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $147 +$121 +82%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $50 −$40 -80%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $50 +$53 +105%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $342 +$158 +46%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $293 +$49 +17%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$37 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $131 −$131 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $126 +$177 +140%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $491 −$296 -60%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $223 −$223 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 14 $591 −$305 -52%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $362 −$362 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla Jun 14 $449 −$390 -87%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 14 $6,147 −$2,686 -44%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $105 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $105 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 78¢ $83 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 40¢ $83 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 38¢ $81 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 62¢ $81 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $90 13h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 14h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 14h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 15h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $132 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 55¢ $84 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $84 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $81 28h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $230 28h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $158 29h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 5¢ $7 29h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 53¢ $76 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $52 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $301 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 55¢ $168 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $168 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 66¢ $112 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Vitality 43¢ $112 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $147 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 55¢ $41 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $41 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 55¢ $73 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.98 · official $111.98 (match) · 894 history records