Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:09:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
89 0x8984…da38 weather 671 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,181 (+3%) realized +$2,181 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate93%626W / 45L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day82.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$194
14 days+$368
30 days+$645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$615
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +63.3% +47.7% 92% 12% -8.6%
≤30d 322 +37.5% +24.4% 87% 11% -8.4%
≤90d 671 +24.1% +12.3% 93% 6% -8.8%
all 671 +24.1% +12.3% 93% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.3% 6% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here +1.5% 6% -17.6%
15% -8.3% 6% -25.5%
20% -17.3% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses626 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)671 / 671
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$121
Trades / day82.9
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 671 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $515 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 28? Jun 26 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June Jun 26 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 28? Jun 26 $260 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $1,187 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 +799%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 +897%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 +507%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 27? Jun 26 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 27? Jun 26 $210 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $321 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 27? Jun 26 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 26? Jun 26 $612 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 57°F or below on June 27? Jun 26 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 25 $294 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 27? Jun 25 $118 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on June 26? Jun 25 $396 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 25 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 25 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $294 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun Jun 25 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 26? Jun 25 $499 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $396 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $1,033 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C or higher on June 26? Jun 25 $496 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C or higher on June 26? Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on June 27? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $202 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on June Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 25 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 25 $131 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $411 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 26? Jun 25 $396 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 25 $57 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June Jun 25 $496 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $77 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $164 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $239 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 25? Jun 25 $668 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 25? Jun 24 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 25? Jun 24 $159 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C or higher on June 25 Jun 24 $645 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 2 Jun 24 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 24 $810 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 43°C or higher on June 26 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 24 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June Jun 24 $544 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 26? Jun 24 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 24 $294 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 28? SELL No 97¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 28? SELL No 97¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 28? SELL No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 28? SELL No 97¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $262 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $260 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records