Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:14:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
89 0x8984…774e other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$221 (-9%) realized −$237 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$731now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$623
7 days+$128
14 days+$128
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$402
sports 41% +$211
crypto 4% −$103
finance 4% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +17.7% +6.5% 60% 60% +1.4%
≤30d 5 +17.7% +6.5% 60% 60% +1.4%
≤90d 11 -22.9% -30.3% 36% 36% -22.3%
all 11 -22.9% -30.3% 36% 36% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 36% -22.3%
10% -36.9% 36% -29.8%
15% -43.0% 36% -36.5%
20% -48.6% 36% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$133 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$731
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage70d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 68¢ 69¢ $715 $731 +$16 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $294 +$428 +145%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $171 +$125 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $100 +$70 +70%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$97 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $400 −$398 -100%
Antoine Griezmann: Anytime Goalscorer May 05 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 30 $103 −$103 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 28 $100 +$71 +71%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 19 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $100 −$12 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $722 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $722 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $294 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $295 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $171 17h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $171 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $100 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $300 5d
Antoine Griezmann: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 21¢ $66 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? SELL Yes 73¢ $92 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? SELL Yes 63¢ $79 58d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 62d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 8¢ $20 69d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 23¢ $100 69d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 29¢ $38 69d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 8¢ $100 69d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 11¢ $88 69d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $730.84 · official $730.95 (match) · 24 history records