Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8987…02f3 other 727 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,256 (-4%) realized −$16,235 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%340W / 382L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$599per market
Trades / day32.7pace
Fees−$1,841est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$811
7 days−$2,573
14 days−$13,904
30 days−$17,477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$12,847
sports 40% −$6,984
world 0% −$2,011
finance 0% +$505
crypto 0% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -7.5% -16.3% 29% 26% -25.4%
≤30d 415 +4.4% -5.5% 42% 41% -19.8%
≤90d 722 +0.5% -9.1% 47% 46% -14.0%
all 722 +0.5% -9.1% 47% 46% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 46% -14.0%
10% -17.8% 44% -22.2%
15% ← realistic here -25.7% 38% -29.7%
20% -33.0% 26% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$765) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$468 vs −$473 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$466
Realized−$16,235
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses340 / 382
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$1,841
Open positions5
Markets (closed)722 / 727
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$599
Trades / day32.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 722 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Djurgardens IF win on 2026-05-31? No 59¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Club Always Ready vs. FC Universitario: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 52¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Over 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 0.5 Under 9¢ 0¢ $17 $1 −$17 (-95%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 4.5 Over 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $34 −$9 -27%
UnionTouargaSports vs. COD Meknès: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
UnionTouargaSports vs. COD Meknès: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $48 +$3 +6%
Kawkab AC leading at halftime? Jun 17 $31 −$5 -15%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,793 +$215 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,096 +$2,924 +140%
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $26 −$20 -79%
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $30 −$2 -6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $215 −$213 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 −$10 -84%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,034 −$2,034 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,589 −$1,589 -100%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3,684 −$3,684 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $393 +$4,386 +1116%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $4 +$9 +262%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $117 −$117 -100%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $737 −$737 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $98 +$12 +12%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 11 $221 −$221 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $28 +$10 +36%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +140%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,292 −$1,292 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Tochigi SC vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2,205 −$2,205 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-06? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1,963 −$1,947 -99%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 10 $196 +$192 +98%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
FC Gifu vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $769 −$769 -100%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $748 +$282 +38%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $38 −$34 -87%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $18 +$11 +64%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2,806 −$2,806 -100%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,433 −$1,431 -100%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $378 +$157 +42%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2,368 +$2,506 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 2h
Kawkab AC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 6h
Kawkab AC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 7h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 7h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 8h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 8h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 8h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 8h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 11h
Kawkab AC leading at halftime? BUY No 69¢ $19 11h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 11h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 11h
Kawkab AC leading at halftime? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 16h
Kawkab AC leading at halftime? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 16h
Kawkab AC leading at halftime? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 16h
Kawkab AC leading at halftime? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 16h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 17h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 17h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 17h
Kawkab AC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 17h
Kawkab AC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 17h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 17h
Kawkab AC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 17h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 17h
Kawkab AC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 17h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 17h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 17h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 17h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 17h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $466.07 · official $466.07 (match) · 3500 history records