Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
89 0x898a…d42c sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2 (+12%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$4
other 18% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +14.6% +3.7% 36% 36% +4.6%
≤30d 11 +14.6% +3.7% 36% 36% +4.6%
≤90d 11 +14.6% +3.7% 36% 36% +4.6%
all 11 +14.6% +3.7% 36% 36% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 36% +4.6%
10% -6.2% 36% -5.4%
15% -15.3% 36% -14.6%
20% -23.6% 36% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +216%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.02 · official $5.02 (match) · 24 history records