Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x898b…560d politics 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$8,423 (+23%) realized +$8,423 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate65%31W / 17L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$750per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,588
7 days+$1,588
14 days+$1,588
30 days+$1,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$5,773
politics 22% −$7
crypto 12% +$2,614
other 5% −$17
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% −$6
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 50% +56.9%
≤30d 4 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 50% +56.9%
≤90d 7 -4.9% -14.0% 43% 43% +56.6%
all 48 -3.9% -13.1% 65% 10% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 10% +11.5%
10% -21.4% 8% +0.8%
15% -29.0% 8% -8.9%
20% -36.0% 8% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% too few recent
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$23 · ×12.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.85 per $1 lost it wins $26.85
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8,423
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses31 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage613d
Avg bet$750
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $206 +$150 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $1,757 +$1,638 +93%
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? May 05 $1 $0 -8%
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? May 05 $4 $0 +11%
Will San Marino be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 05 $5 $0 -3%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market clos Mar 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 07 $2 $0 +0%
Meta (META) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $9 −$6 -68%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $25 −$1 -5%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $8 −$3 -35%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $12 −$5 -42%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28? Feb 17 $23 −$6 -28%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 17 $10,012 +$5,865 +59%
Rotterdam Open: Zizou Bergs vs Fabian Marozsan Feb 11 $10,012 $0 +0%
Will Gold close between $3200 and $3300 at the end of 2025? Jan 19 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 18? Jan 19 $2,012 +$1,026 +51%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 15 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 19 $16 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 19 $16 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 23 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? Jul 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in Assists? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Hawks Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will another player be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February Mar 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will another party win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 12 $5,761 −$6 -0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Jan 09 $20 $0 +0%
Warriors vs. Pelicans Dec 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Electio Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska's 2nd congressional d Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win New Jersey Presidential Electi Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Michigan Presidential Election Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Illinois Presidential Election Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Florida Presidential Election? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win New Hampshire Presidential Ele Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Ohio Presidential Election? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? Nov 06 $10 $0 +0%
David Cameron next Conservative party leader? Nov 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 13 $1,891 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $1,893 −$2 -0%
2024 Balance of Power: Other Oct 13 $1,795 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1,757 4h
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? SELL No 91¢ $1 43d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 43d
Will San Marino be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 43d
Will San Marino be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 64d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $4 90d
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market clos SELL No 98¢ $12 103d
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market clos BUY No 98¢ $12 119d
Meta (META) Up or Down on February 17? SELL Up 15¢ $3 120d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 17? SELL Up 21¢ $4 120d
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 17? SELL Up 23¢ $5 120d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 17? SELL Up 18¢ $7 120d
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28? SELL No 42¢ $17 120d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 17? BUY Up 27¢ $5 120d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 17? BUY Up 31¢ $6 120d
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 17? BUY Up 29¢ $0 121d
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28? BUY No 54¢ $11 121d
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 17? BUY Up 36¢ $7 121d
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28? BUY No 63¢ $13 121d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 17? BUY Up 44¢ $9 121d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 17? BUY Up 35¢ $7 121d
Meta (META) Up or Down on February 17? BUY Up 46¢ $9 121d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 17? BUY Down 52¢ $10 121d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals SELL Invictus Gaming 100¢ $14,804 126d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals BUY Invictus Gaming 63¢ $10,012 127d
Rotterdam Open: Zizou Bergs vs Fabian Marozsan BUY Bergs 50¢ $10,012 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 18? SELL Up 51¢ $683 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records