Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x898f…e9f2
sports · 150 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$172 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$150 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$88
Realized−$150
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses64 / 84
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)148 / 150
History coverage107d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 2 History 148 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$88
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $101 $84 −$17 (-17%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 38¢ 18¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Spread: Lakers (-11.5) Bulls 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 224.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 230.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
WTT - Men's Singles: Tomokazu Harimoto vs Ruibo Wen Harimoto 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Liverpool FC 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies Furman Paladins 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Suns 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5) Trail Blazers 54¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5) Warriors 54¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Fulham FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils TCU Horned Frogs 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Nets: O/U 224.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Knicks 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Spread: Rockets (-7.5) Rockets 55¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 215.5 Over 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Heat (-6.5) Bucks 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $93 −$91 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $58 +$64 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Apr 24 $30 +$23 +76%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Apr 19 $40 −$39 -98%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 Apr 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5 Apr 11 $35 +$35 +101%
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 247.5 Apr 10 $79 −$63 -80%
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 230.5 Apr 08 $50 −$49 -99%
Jazz vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5 Apr 08 $72 +$67 +93%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Apr 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Apr 07 $30 −$17 -55%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5 Apr 06 $30 −$30 -98%
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 230.5 Apr 06 $50 +$48 +97%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Apr 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Apr 04 $30 −$1 -3%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Apr 04 $30 −$30 -99%
Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5 Apr 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5 Apr 04 $20 +$19 +97%
Spread: Pelicans (-5.5) Apr 04 $15 −$15 -99%
Raptors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5 Apr 04 $20 −$14 -72%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5 Apr 03 $20 +$18 +90%
Suns vs. Hornets: O/U 223.5 Apr 03 $20 +$19 +97%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5 Apr 02 $50 +$43 +86%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5 Apr 01 $20 +$19 +97%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Apr 01 $30 −$30 -98%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 Mar 31 $10 +$10 +103%
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Jiangsu Dragons Mar 31 $1 −$1 -97%
76ers vs. Heat: O/U 246.5 Mar 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 221.5 Mar 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Mar 30 $20 +$18 +92%
Knicks vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5 Mar 30 $20 +$19 +96%
Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5 Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-15.5) Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bulls vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5 Mar 28 $20 +$17 +85%
Kings vs. Magic: O/U 230.5 Mar 27 $20 +$18 +92%
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5 Mar 26 $5 +$4 +85%
Wizards vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5 Mar 26 $10 +$10 +100%
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 233.5 Mar 25 $30 +$30 +100%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Mar 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Raptors vs. Jazz: O/U 230.5 Mar 24 $20 +$17 +85%
Spread: Rockets (-7.5) Mar 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Nets vs. Kings: O/U 218.5 Mar 23 $15 +$14 +96%
Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5 Mar 23 $20 +$16 +82%
Jiangsu Dragons vs. Zhejiang Lions Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Tianjin Pioneers Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 Mar 22 $15 +$13 +85%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5 Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 89% −$160
other 9% −$8
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$4
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 39m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $94 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $33 8h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $59 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $58 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $61 30h
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) BUY Cavaliers 56¢ $30 54d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 51¢ $40 54d
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 55d
Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5 BUY Over 49¢ $35 64d
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 247.5 SELL Over 10¢ $16 64d
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 247.5 BUY Over 51¢ $79 65d
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 230.5 BUY Over 52¢ $50 66d
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) BUY Suns 55¢ $20 66d
Jazz vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5 BUY Over 51¢ $72 67d
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) SELL Nuggets 21¢ $7 67d
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) SELL Nuggets 21¢ $6 67d
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) BUY Nuggets 46¢ $30 67d
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 68d
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) BUY Rockets 51¢ $15 68d
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 230.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 69d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) SELL Nuggets 53¢ $29 70d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Nuggets 54¢ $30 70d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) BUY 76ers 53¢ $30 70d
Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 70d
Spread: Pelicans (-5.5) BUY Pelicans 55¢ $15 70d
Raptors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5 SELL Over 15¢ $6 70d
Raptors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 71d
Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -47.4%
≤30d 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -47.4%
≤90d 56 -13.9% -22.1% 43% 43% -14.8%
all 148 -11.0% -19.4% 43% 42% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 42% -14.9%
10% -27.1% 41% -23.1%
15% -34.2% 39% -30.5%
20% -40.6% 38% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.46 · official $88.46 (match) · 267 history records