Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x898f…73e9 crypto 244 markets active 3d ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%125W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$71
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$33
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -23.5% -30.8% 41% 38% -31.0%
≤30d 148 -24.7% -31.9% 43% 39% -35.9%
≤90d 240 -11.8% -20.2% 51% 48% -15.7%
all 244 -11.7% -20.1% 51% 48% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 48% -15.5%
10% -27.7% 39% -23.6%
15% -34.7% 27% -30.9%
20% -41.1% 17% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses125 / 119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage158d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 561 history records