Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:28:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8990…909e other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$423 (-48%) realized −$422 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%5W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$163
14 days−$223
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$401
sports 47% −$3
crypto 2% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-70.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -72.4% -75.0% 16% 16% -68.2%
≤30d 28 -75.4% -77.7% 14% 14% -74.3%
≤90d 28 -75.4% -77.7% 14% 14% -74.3%
all 31 -67.7% -70.8% 16% 16% -59.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.8% 16% -59.8%
10% -73.6% 16% -63.7%
15% -76.1% 16% -67.2%
20% -78.5% 13% -70.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$24 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$422
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses5 / 26
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage110d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 +$9 +92%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 08 $80 +$169 +212%
First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan Mar 04 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 04 $250 −$250 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 40h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes $5 46h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes $5 46h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes $5 47h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes $3 47h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes $3 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 47h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 47h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes $10 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes $10 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes $10 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes $10 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.81 · official $101.81 (match) · 47 history records