Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x8996…fbce
sports · 296 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$48,444 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$47,232 · open +$1,213
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$3,145
Realized+$47,232
Unrealized+$1,213
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses139 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,288
Open positions1
Markets (closed)295 / 296
History coverage489d
Avg bet$1,933
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 295 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$525
30 days−$2,023
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 76¢ $1,932 $3,145 +$1,213 (+63%)
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) G2 Esports 45¢ $383 $0 −$383 (-100%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Pistons 45¢ $6,949 $0 −$6,949 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 40¢ $1,129 $0 −$1,129 (-100%)
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) KT Rolster 62¢ $9,328 $0 −$9,328 (-100%)
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Rafael Jodar 21¢ $525 $0 −$525 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-24? No 30¢ $1,774 $0 −$1,774 (-100%)
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Over 3.5 14¢ $1,498 $0 −$1,498 (-100%)
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? No 32¢ $1,564 $0 −$1,564 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $525 −$525 -100%
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 26 $1,502 −$1,498 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) May 10 $383 −$383 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 09 $6,949 −$6,949 -100%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 03 $9,328 −$9,328 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) May 03 $6,648 +$3,937 +59%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Apr 29 $7,459 +$8,080 +108%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 29 $3,360 −$3,360 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 29 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 29 $996 −$996 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-23? Apr 29 $2,656 −$2,656 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 29 $3,410 −$3,410 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) Apr 27 $9,342 +$10,025 +107%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $1,564 −$1,564 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $1,812 −$1,774 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $3,127 +$4,890 +156%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Apr 21 $8,610 +$10,108 +117%
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5) Apr 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 20 $10,527 −$10,527 -100%
UFC Fight Night: JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (Women's Flyweight, Pr Apr 18 $9,072 −$284 -3%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-16? Apr 18 $2,346 −$2,346 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $2,292 −$2,292 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $5,206 +$3,329 +64%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $2,065 +$3,670 +178%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $1,576 +$4,484 +285%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $3,192 +$3,458 +108%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $3,116 −$50 -2%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 12 $566 −$566 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-10? Apr 12 $955 −$955 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 12 $2,120 −$2,120 -100%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 12.5 Apr 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-10? Apr 12 $1,386 −$1,386 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 12 $2,926 −$2,926 -100%
Oilers vs. Kings Apr 12 $5,710 −$5,710 -100%
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5 Apr 12 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $1,472 +$3,859 +262%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $2,065 −$113 -6%
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 Apr 08 $47 +$56 +119%
Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5 Apr 08 $194 +$216 +112%
Christian Braun: Points O/U 12.5 Apr 07 $90 +$86 +95%
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5 Apr 07 $401 −$401 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 Apr 07 $421 +$362 +86%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $1,032 +$4,399 +426%
Will JD Vance say Trump 10+ times during the Charlie Kirk Show on Mond Apr 06 $328 −$123 -37%
Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 06 $1,734 −$1,734 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $166 −$166 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pacers Apr 06 $394 −$394 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? Apr 06 $3,490 −$3,490 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% +$47,187
other 34% +$4,155
economics 2% −$1,140
tech 1% −$1,631
politics 0% −$716
world 0% +$489
culture 0% +$135
crypto 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $1,963 1h
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $326 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $2 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $0 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $32 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $144 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $1 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $2 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $2 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $0 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $0 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $1 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $1 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $1 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $6 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $6 10d
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 14¢ $707 17d
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 14¢ $326 17d
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 14¢ $32 17d
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 14¢ $19 17d
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 14¢ $16 17d
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 14¢ $10 17d
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 14¢ $163 17d
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 13¢ $0 17d
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 13¢ $1 17d
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 13¢ $40 17d
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 13¢ $6 17d
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 13¢ $1 17d
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 13¢ $1 17d
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 13¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 118 -34.4% -40.7% 22% 21% -23.7%
all 295 +0.6% -8.9% 47% 38% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 38% -2.0%
10% -17.7% 33% -11.4%
15% -25.6% 28% -20.0%
20% -32.9% 23% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,144.98 · official $3,144.98 (match) · 3500 history records