Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8997…69fa crypto 455 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$255 (-12%) realized −$254 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate49%188W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$68
14 days+$202
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$80
world 9% +$82
other 3% +$14
economics 1% −$3
politics 1% +$7
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -43.0% -48.4% 45% 12% -48.2%
≤30d 86 +14.3% +3.4% 55% 22% +33.1%
≤90d 233 -16.3% -24.3% 51% 16% -4.7%
all 383 -8.9% -17.6% 49% 21% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 21% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 15% -16.7%
15% -32.7% 13% -24.7%
20% -39.3% 11% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$254
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses188 / 195
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions72
Markets (closed)383 / 455
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 72 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 25¢ 85¢ $18 $62 +$44 (+240%)
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? No 41¢ 41¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $21 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 73¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+24%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 17¢ 24¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+40%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? No 98¢ 97¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 81¢ 82¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $8 $5 −$2 (-30%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 26¢ 34¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 79¢ 98¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 74¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 33¢ 85¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+159%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 95¢ 95¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 75¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 14 $7 −$4 -58%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -83%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $6 +$2 +38%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +23%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5? Jun 05 $9 +$2 +19%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 5? Jun 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $20 +$35 +174%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$4 +64%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$2 +64%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $6 $0 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? Jun 05 $9 +$28 +299%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $1 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 19? BUY No 15¢ $1 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 3h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $1 3h
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3h
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $1 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $1 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 6h
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 20h
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1 26h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 19? BUY No 6¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.95 · official $287.95 (match) · 3500 history records