Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x899b…7c43 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$1
other 27% +$2
politics 8% −$2
sports 8% $0
crypto 5% +$1
economics 5% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 8 +2.4% -7.4% 38% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 8 +2.4% -7.4% 38% 12% -9.1%
all 36 -1.9% -11.3% 56% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 6% -9.1%
10% -19.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage467d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 66¢ 78¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $64 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $51 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $10 +$1 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 15 $1 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $1 $0 -30%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 13 $11 $0 -2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 12 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 11 $12 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mircea Geoană advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 07 $19 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 04 $19 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 03 $19 $0 +1%
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? Mar 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 19 $18 $0 +2%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 12 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $17 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $44 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $44 11h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $49 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $49 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $24 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 64¢ $22 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 64¢ $3 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 64¢ $23 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 66¢ $51 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 99¢ $51 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 99¢ $51 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $19 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $20 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.57 · official $34.16 (match) · 102 history records