Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x899b…5f0e other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%39W / 77L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days−$20
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$25
world 40% −$5
politics 8% $0
sports 7% $0
finance 1% +$4
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 22% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 37 -0.5% -10.0% 27% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 52 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 6% -9.8%
all 116 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses39 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)116 / 118
History coverage476d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $129 $129 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 60¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $141 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $128 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $128 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $414 −$5 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $98 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $255 +$10 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $126 +$2 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $128 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $252 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $64 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $126 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $234 −$27 -12%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $158 +$2 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $283 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $141 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $142 −$2 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $156 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $146 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $6 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $152 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $18 $0 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $156 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $156 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $179 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $15 +$6 +38%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $4 $0 +13%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $152 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $155 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $152 +$4 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $152 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $167 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $167 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 -18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $11 +$3 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $148 +$2 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $162 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $48 −$22 -46%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $69 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $752 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $909 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $911 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $129 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $141 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $141 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $128 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $106 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $22 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $128 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $128 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $81 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $61 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $145 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $44 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $44 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $98 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $98 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $142 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $141 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $19 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $101 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $8 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $126 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.70 · official $129.56 (match) · 430 history records