Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x899d…be8d other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1
world 28% +$1
crypto 11% −$7
politics 6% +$1
tech 4% $0
finance 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +144.4% +121.2% 36% 14% -9.4%
≤90d 14 +144.4% +121.2% 36% 14% -9.4%
all 56 +32.8% +20.2% 39% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.2% 5% -10.1%
10% +8.7% 5% -18.7%
15% -1.8% 2% -26.6%
20% -11.5% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage400d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $11 +$3 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $61 −$3 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $3 +$1 +20%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 16 $6 $0 -7%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 16 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 21 $18 $0 +3%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files? Jun 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will R win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will LaTanya Richardson Jackson win the Tony for Best Leading Actress Jun 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Jun 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? Jun 01 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 31 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before June? May 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 French Open? May 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will 'The Apothecary Diaries' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 25 $25 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on May 23? May 24 $25 $0 +1%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will 'DAN DA DAN' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 22 $24 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $32 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23 15h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 15h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $29 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $31 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $8 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $21 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $26 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $29 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records