Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89a0…0d09 crypto 97 markets active 2d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-3%) realized −$10 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%54W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$18
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$23
politics 2% −$14
other 0% −$1
sports 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -0.9% -10.4% 61% 40% -11.4%
≤30d 89 -2.1% -11.4% 61% 39% -12.0%
≤90d 89 -2.1% -11.4% 61% 39% -12.0%
all 89 -2.1% -11.4% 61% 39% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 39% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 29% -20.4%
15% -27.6% 22% -28.1%
20% -34.7% 15% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses54 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)89 / 97
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 89¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$6 +566%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.35 · official $5.35 (match) · 255 history records