Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x89a1…4739 sports 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$560 (-1%) realized −$551 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate59%126W / 86L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3,770now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$62
14 days−$14
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$454
politics 27% −$278
world 18% +$366
sports 14% −$364
crypto 8% +$79
economics 7% +$113
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -26.1% -33.1% 40% 30% -7.0%
≤30d 55 -7.1% -15.9% 65% 27% -8.5%
≤90d 130 -10.1% -18.6% 56% 33% -8.6%
all 212 -5.2% -14.2% 59% 30% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 30% -10.4%
10% -22.4% 25% -19.0%
15% -29.9% 23% -26.8%
20% -36.8% 21% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$45 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$3,770
Realized−$551
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses126 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions26
Markets (closed)212 / 242
History coverage233d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elton Hermansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 94¢ 99¢ $772 $817 +$46 (+6%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $600 $606 +$6 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $492 $489 −$3 (-1%)
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 70¢ $320 $288 −$31 (-10%)
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $259 $264 +$5 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $137 $143 +$6 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $126 $138 +$12 (+9%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 67¢ 66¢ $134 $132 −$2 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 94¢ 96¢ $113 $115 +$3 (+2%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+3%)
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $87 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $74 $80 +$6 (+9%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 92¢ 87¢ $81 $77 −$4 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 72¢ $55 $43 −$12 (-21%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? No 90¢ 93¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Canada be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 87¢ 76¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-13%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 34¢ 27¢ $17 $13 −$3 (-21%)
Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 63¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 81¢ 96¢ $11 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 93¢ 61¢ $19 $12 −$6 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 26 $1,484 −$3 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $508 +$75 +15%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $125 +$5 +4%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$12 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$9 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $18 −$17 -99%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $43 +$13 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $45 +$22 +47%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $127 −$126 -99%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 16 $162 +$29 +18%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$15 +250%
Will Pavel Dorofeyev win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $241 +$1 +0%
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $44 +$3 +6%
Will Brett Howden win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $297 +$19 +6%
Will Shea Theodore win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Nikolaj Ehlers win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Linus Ullmark win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $135 $0 +0%
Will K'Andre Miller score the most goals in a single game during the 2 Jun 15 $123 +$1 +1%
Will Brayden McNabb score the most goals in a single game during the 2 Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will Eric Robinson score the most goals in a single game during the 20 Jun 15 $247 +$2 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $241 −$26 -11%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $105 +$8 +8%
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $277 +$3 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 09 $240 +$57 +24%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $798 +$64 +8%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $801 +$5 +1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 05 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $156 +$28 +18%
Tea FDV above $100M one day after launch Jun 03 $36 −$31 -84%
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 03 $32 −$8 -24%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 03 $70 −$17 -25%
NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada? Jun 03 $26 +$4 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 03 $600 +$16 +3%
Will Sidney Crosby win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 03 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elton Hermansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 94¢ $773 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $470 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $382 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 78¢ $50 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 96¢ $125 2d
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 98¢ $19 2d
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 97¢ $34 2d
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 96¢ $206 2d
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $88 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $15 2d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $75 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 94¢ $113 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 6d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $23 6d
Will Canada be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $27 6d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6d
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $81 6d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $201 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $601 8d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on 2026- BUY $21 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 16¢ $26 8d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $33 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $23 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 8d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 67¢ $68 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,769.58 · official $3,817.88 · 784 history records