Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
89 0x89a7…3610 other 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$404 (+7%) realized +$415 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%32W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$397
7 days+$1,009
14 days+$373
30 days+$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$125
sports 42% +$577
crypto 2% −$61
world 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +51.4% +37.0% 73% 73% +33.5%
≤30d 76 -9.2% -17.9% 42% 42% -1.7%
≤90d 76 -9.2% -17.9% 42% 42% -1.7%
all 76 -9.2% -17.9% 42% 42% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 42% -1.7%
10% -25.7% 42% -11.1%
15% -32.9% 38% -19.7%
20% -39.5% 36% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$34 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$979
Realized+$415
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses32 / 44
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions12
Markets (closed)76 / 95
History coverage44d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $150 $161 +$11 (+7%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $75 $70 −$6 (-8%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 56¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+29%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 36¢ $75 $45 −$30 (-40%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $126 +$69 +55%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $152 +$163 +107%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $131 +$67 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $127 +$91 +72%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$30 +291%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $350 +$125 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $114 −$112 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$24 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $73 +$27 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $51 +$52 +102%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$47 -94%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$28 +109%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $90 +$57 +64%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 +$55 +216%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$63 +123%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +173%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $63 −$62 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$68 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 −$6 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$6 +118%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $25 −$8 -31%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $202 +$68 +34%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $7 +$13 +188%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $76 11m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 13m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $76 13m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 16m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 20m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 23m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $51 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $25 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $76 17h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $91 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY $15 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 33h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $51 33h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 59¢ $76 33h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 16¢ $62 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $56 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $76 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 46h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $15 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $979.09 · official $1,039.09 · 172 history records