Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x89a7…e363 weather 54 markets active 3h ago coverage 634d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%49W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$13
weather 34% +$9
sports 3% +$4
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 41 +0.4% -9.2% 95% 0% -9.2%
all 53 +0.5% -9.0% 92% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

634d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses49 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage634d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? No 99¢ 98¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 1? Jun 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 29? May 31 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 29 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $115 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 24? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 24? May 26 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 18? May 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on May 18? May 22 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 16? May 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 16? May 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on May 15? May 16 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on May 12? May 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 65°F or below on May 12? May 13 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 11? May 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on May 9? May 10 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 8? May 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on May 6? May 07 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 18°C on May 5? May 04 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 3? May 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 3? May 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 20? May 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on April 22? May 01 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on April 22? May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on April 18? Apr 20 $52 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 20? Apr 20 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or below on April 18? Apr 19 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 17? Apr 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 15? Apr 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on April 13? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 3°C on April 13? Apr 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 13? Apr 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C or below on April 8? Apr 11 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on April 6? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C or higher on April 6 Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on April 6? Apr 07 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on April 4? Apr 04 $107 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Apr 04 $108 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 05 $4 $0 +5%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 05 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Oct 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 04 $55 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $5,091 −$13 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 14 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on October 1? Oct 02 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum dips below $2,000 by Sept 30? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $116 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $90 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $16 45h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $90 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $116 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $16 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $116 24d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $115 27d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $115 30d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 26? SELL No 100¢ $115 30d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $115 30d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $110 33d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $5 33d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $71 38d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $44 38d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $34 39d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $80 39d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $114 42d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $47 44d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 65°F or below on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $67 45d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $46 46d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $67 48d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $46 48d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $113 51d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 18°C on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $109 52d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $64 54d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $48 54d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $12 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.79 · official $114.79 (match) · 141 history records