Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
89 0x89a8…d9a3 other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+16%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$26
sports 39% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -16.7% -24.7% 36% 36% +6.2%
≤30d 11 -16.7% -24.7% 36% 36% +6.2%
≤90d 11 -16.7% -24.7% 36% 36% +6.2%
all 11 -16.7% -24.7% 36% 36% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 36% +6.2%
10% -31.9% 27% -3.9%
15% -38.4% 27% -13.2%
20% -44.5% 27% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$12 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$7 +15%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 +$38 +86%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -65%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $46 +$63 +137%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$6 -54%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 59¢ $22 23m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 23m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 59¢ $29 23m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $45 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 32h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $45 33h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 33h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 35h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $29 35h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $25 37h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 38h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 38h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $8 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records