Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89ab…89ac sports 669 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$211 (-3%) realized −$210 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%327W / 329L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$26
14 days−$40
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$272
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -3.6% -12.8% 49% 48% -13.1%
≤30d 571 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 49% -12.7%
≤90d 656 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 49% -13.1%
all 656 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 49% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 49% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 49% -21.4%
15% -30.9% 48% -29.0%
20% -37.6% 47% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$210
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses327 / 329
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions13
Markets (closed)656 / 669
History coverage33d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 656 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 296 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 +$6 +109%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$9 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 13 $10 +$8 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $10 +$8 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $10 +$9 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $10 +$9 +86%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $10 −$6 -56%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $10 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $10 53m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 54m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 57m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 57m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 59¢ $10 59m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $10 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $10 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $10 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $10 27h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 27h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 27h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 27h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 49¢ $10 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $10 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 27h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $5 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 27h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 49¢ $9 27h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $10 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.62 · official $128.63 (match) · 1081 history records