Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:32:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89ac…3e8f crypto 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%97W / 10L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days−$44
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$69
sports 6% −$17
other 3% −$33
world 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +18.0% +6.8% 100% 100% +5.7%
≤30d 41 -6.8% -15.7% 85% 12% -9.9%
≤90d 87 -2.8% -12.1% 89% 6% -9.3%
all 107 -2.0% -11.3% 91% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 5% -9.2%
10% -19.8% 2% -17.9%
15% -27.6% 1% -25.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses97 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage119d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 +$4 +13%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $16 +$4 +23%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$32 -57%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $16 −$6 -39%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $27 +$3 +10%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $153 +$3 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $131 +$19 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $233 +$2 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $72 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $47 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $118 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $116 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $112 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $110 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $106 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $104 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $97 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $96 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $93 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $88 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 26 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $86 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $84 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 23 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 18 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 17 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $81 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $79 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $60 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 88¢ $26 6d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $16 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 79¢ $24 7d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 49¢ $10 7d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $16 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $55 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $28 8d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 97¢ $49 9d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $27 9d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 83¢ $17 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 93¢ $28 9d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $153 9d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $9 9d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 87¢ $131 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $133 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $132 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $102 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $100 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $41 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $31 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $47 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $87 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.85 · official $59.85 (match) · 277 history records