Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89ad…e04d finance 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$423 (-20%) realized −$424 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate83%25W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$543
30 days−$491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 55% −$232
world 27% −$216
other 9% +$3
crypto 7% +$13
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 10 -9.9% -18.5% 70% 30% -46.6%
≤90d 30 +6.4% -3.7% 83% 47% -33.2%
all 30 +6.4% -3.7% 83% 47% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 47% -33.2%
10% -12.9% 27% -39.6%
15% -21.3% 20% -45.4%
20% -29.0% 13% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$111 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$441
Realized−$424
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses25 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage67d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $400 $401 +$1 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $40 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $233 −$233 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 16 $313 −$310 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $218 +$11 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 04 $50 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 01 $30 +$11 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $122 +$6 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 31 $92 +$3 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $26 +$10 +37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 30 $76 +$12 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 23 $96 +$18 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 23 $45 +$3 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $34 +$12 +34%
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2 May 09 $28 +$2 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026? May 08 $30 +$7 +22%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $5 +$3 +66%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 7? May 07 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 03 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 03 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 03 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 03 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 03 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 03 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 03 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 03 $5 +$4 +80%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of April 27 2026? May 02 $11 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 29 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 97¢ $40 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 99¢ $40 28h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $400 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $4 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 73¢ $313 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $229 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $229 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $49 23d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $49 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $41 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 65¢ $41 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $128 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $128 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 27d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 91¢ $29 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $122 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL No 100¢ $35 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? SELL No 100¢ $88 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY No 86¢ $76 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 96¢ $76 35d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $50 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 95¢ $48 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 71¢ $22 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 89¢ $24 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 78¢ $4 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 84¢ $25 37d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 92¢ $29 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 81¢ $37 43d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $37 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.00 · official $441.00 (match) · 81 history records