Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89b4…55bc weather 684 markets active 7h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$9,079 (+185%) realized +$9,093 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%226W / 675L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day73.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$471
world 1% −$19
other 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 393 -58.3% -62.3% 15% 12% -69.2%
≤30d 615 -29.9% -36.6% 24% 19% -38.2%
≤90d 901 -26.7% -33.7% 25% 20% -29.6%
all 901 -26.7% -33.7% 25% 20% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.7% 20% -29.6%
10% ← realistic here -40.1% 15% -36.3%
15% -45.8% 14% -42.5%
20% -51.2% 12% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$9,093
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses226 / 675
Open positions7
Markets (closed)901 / 684
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 901 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $3 $25 +$22 (+852%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 10? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 5? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 7? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 7? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 5? Jun 17 $4 +$16 +425%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 14? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 19? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 4? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 27? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on March 2? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 24? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 26? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 21? Jun 17 $29 −$32 -109%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on February 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on March 20 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 20? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 2? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -107%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 28? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 28, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 1? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 1 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or higher on March 30? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or higher on March 7? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 7? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 24? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 7? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Te Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 4? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 13? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 24? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 1? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on May 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 1 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 19? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 24? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 19? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 23? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 36¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? SELL No 55¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 56¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 56¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.27 · official $25.27 (match) · 3500 history records