Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:41:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x89b4…85df world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$2
other 20% $0
politics 7% $0
sports 5% +$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.5% -8.2% 43% 14% -9.2%
≤30d 14 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 14 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 7% -9.1%
all 35 +1.2% -8.4% 54% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 3% -9.1%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage449d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $8 +$1 +11%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $34 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $36 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $36 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $14 $0 +1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Jun 08 $2 $0 +10%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $14 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 08 $14 $0 -1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 07 $14 $0 -1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $14 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $9 12h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 9¢ $0 16h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 9¢ $4 16h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 9¢ $4 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $16 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $29 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $29 46h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $13 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $22 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 83¢ $38 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $27 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $1 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $10 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $26 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $9 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $33 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $1 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $37 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $36 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $33 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.96 · official $31.34 (match) · 97 history records