Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89b4…f9cb crypto 1104 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate82%904W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$8
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -1.1% -10.5% 78% 23% -11.1%
≤30d 702 -7.1% -16.0% 75% 25% -17.5%
≤90d 1104 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 30% -11.0%
all 1104 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 30% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 30% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 9% -19.5%
15% -27.1% 4% -27.3%
20% -34.2% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses904 / 200
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1104 / 1104
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1104 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records