Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89b5…5aa7 crypto 971 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,117 (-26%) realized −$2,074 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%395W / 570L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days+$122
14 days+$122
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% +$26
crypto 32% −$247
politics 2% −$1
sports 1% −$17
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -17.3% -25.1% 53% 18% -6.9%
≤30d 59 -9.6% -18.2% 54% 22% -7.0%
≤90d 585 -15.6% -23.6% 34% 26% -9.5%
all 965 -12.2% -20.5% 41% 32% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 32% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 26% -20.3%
15% -35.1% 21% -28.0%
20% -41.5% 17% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$2,074
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses395 / 570
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)965 / 971
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 965 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $62 $97 +$35 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? No 95¢ 94¢ $70 $69 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? Yes 29¢ 31¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $503 +$51 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $161 +$18 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $142 +$67 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $250 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $71 +$15 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 8? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 9? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $36 −$29 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $31 −$24 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $81 −$70 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 40°C or higher on May 2? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $414 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $21 −$6 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $116 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $151 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $401 +$12 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $110 −$8 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $151 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 +$23 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $108 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $113 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$11 +217%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$4 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $104 +$10 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $150 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$8 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$5 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $37 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 +$17 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $55 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 26m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 42m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 46m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 47m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 50m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 51m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 55m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 58m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 83¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $202 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 94¢ $52 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $31 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $128 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $93 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $23 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $21 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 93¢ $91 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 94¢ $51 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $18 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $174 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.82 · official $229.74 (match) · 3500 history records