Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:34:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89b6…886e weather 1138 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$899 (-5%) realized −$899 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%342W / 796L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$437
7 days−$163
14 days−$234
30 days−$720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$63
other 19% −$82
weather 11% −$700
crypto 2% −$83
culture 1% −$143
world 0% −$5
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -1.3% -10.7% 73% 36% -10.6%
≤30d 680 -35.2% -41.3% 27% 22% -13.4%
≤90d 1138 -17.6% -25.5% 30% 26% -15.0%
all 1138 -17.6% -25.5% 30% 26% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 26% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 22% -23.1%
15% -39.1% 20% -30.5%
20% -45.1% 17% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$899
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses342 / 796
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1138 / 1138
History coverage52d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1138 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $82 +$31 +38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $512 −$506 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $401 +$4 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $200 +$10 +5%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $301 +$19 +6%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $401 +$20 +5%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva Jun 17 $400 +$7 +2%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $412 +$37 +9%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $191 +$8 +4%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$16 +30%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $200 +$7 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $352 +$45 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $257 +$117 +46%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $302 −$300 -99%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $200 +$11 +6%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $400 +$12 +3%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $100 +$9 +9%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $301 +$53 +18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? Jun 16 $40 +$9 +21%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +194%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $342 +$62 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$23 -77%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $212 +$117 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $301 −$150 -50%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $91 −$6 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +103%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$10 +5%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $121 +$27 +23%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $200 +$11 +6%
Will CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile end in a draw? Jun 14 $105 +$12 +11%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -90%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $125 −$65 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $112 48m
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 90¢ $100 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 12h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes $6 12h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 12h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 12h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 12h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 12h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 13h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $110 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 15h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 91¢ $100 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 15h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 100¢ $114 17h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 88¢ $100 17h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 18h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 94¢ $301 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova SELL Susan Bandecchi 100¢ $421 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 95¢ $401 20h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva SELL Gustavo Heide 100¢ $408 20h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva BUY Gustavo Heide 98¢ $400 21h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche SELL Luca Van Assche 100¢ $309 21h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 97¢ $300 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $328 31h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 31h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 31h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $120 32h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $175 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3064 history records