Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89b8…f32d politics 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$6
other 32% +$7
world 8% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 2 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -13.1%
≤90d 2 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -13.1%
all 2 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 0% -13.1%
10% -23.8% 0% -21.4%
15% -31.1% 0% -29.0%
20% -37.9% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)2 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 95¢ 92¢ $150 $144 −$5 (-4%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 79¢ 84¢ $113 $120 +$7 (+6%)
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? No 98¢ 91¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 45¢ 48¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 82¢ 81¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 91¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 86¢ 85¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? Jun 21 $2 $0 -11%
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? Jun 20 $13 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $2 28m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 45¢ $15 5h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $6 5h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $8 5h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $2 5h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 SELL No 90¢ $0 13h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 14h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 SELL No 90¢ $0 22h
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 23h
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $4 40h
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 42h
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $4 45h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $2 2d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $0 2d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? SELL No 79¢ $0 2d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 2d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? SELL No 88¢ $9 2d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 88¢ $4 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $2 3d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3 3d
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 3d
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 3d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3 3d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $2 3d
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $1 3d
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.38 · official $356.38 (match) · 48 history records