Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:11:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89b8…0e67 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$508 (+40%) realized +$508 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$378
7 days+$229
14 days+$229
30 days+$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$445
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -17.4% -25.3% 47% 40% +11.7%
≤30d 26 -5.4% -14.4% 35% 31% +23.0%
≤90d 26 -5.4% -14.4% 35% 31% +23.0%
all 26 -5.4% -14.4% 35% 31% +23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 31% +23.0%
10% -22.6% 27% +11.2%
15% -30.0% 27% +0.5%
20% -36.9% 27% -9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$27 · ×3.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$508
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage17d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $142 −$135 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $140 +$107 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $106 +$271 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $86 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $73 +$43 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $98 +$55 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $74 −$70 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$45 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $104 +$86 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $28 +$260 +940%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $92 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $377 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $106 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $121 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records