Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:56:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89bd…9557 crypto 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$144 (-21%) realized −$143 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%113W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$162
other 5% $0
tech 2% −$2
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -44.6% -49.9% 33% 28% -34.6%
≤30d 69 -44.6% -49.9% 33% 28% -34.6%
≤90d 241 -20.0% -27.6% 47% 37% -31.0%
all 241 -20.0% -27.6% 47% 37% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 37% -31.0%
10% -34.5% 25% -37.6%
15% -40.9% 21% -43.6%
20% -46.7% 17% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$143
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses113 / 128
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)241 / 249
History coverage82d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL No 60¢ $2 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 24h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.57 · official $7.57 (match) · 755 history records