Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x89be…d382 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$230 (-3%) realized −$230 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$76
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$265
crypto 20% +$74
other 14% −$2
culture 3% −$2
finance 1% −$48
sports 1% +$19
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +175.6% +149.3% 80% 80% +24.4%
≤30d 8 +90.8% +72.6% 62% 50% -19.7%
≤90d 8 +90.8% +72.6% 62% 50% -19.7%
all 26 +30.2% +17.8% 54% 42% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.8% 42% -12.4%
10% +6.5% 27% -20.8%
15% -3.8% 23% -28.5%
20% -13.2% 19% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late +47% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$78 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage114d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 +$56 +786%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $111 +$53 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $24 +$18 +73%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $56 −$55 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +71%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $200 −$117 -58%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $474 +$31 +6%
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 14 $200 −$2 -1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 14 $200 +$41 +21%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $260 −$145 -56%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Mar 08 $1,160 −$23 -2%
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $50 −$39 -78%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $100 +$67 +67%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 07 $100 −$48 -48%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $100 +$163 +163%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $600 +$97 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $661 −$73 -11%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Mar 03 $715 −$326 -46%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 02 $25 −$10 -38%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $192 +$34 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $50 +$11 +23%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $600 −$3 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $187 +$5 +2%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $400 +$75 +19%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $600 +$52 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $111 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $195 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $24 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $111 23h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? SELL Yes 20¢ $83 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 49¢ $200 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 94¢ $474 13d
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th SELL No 76¢ $198 99d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 57¢ $241 99d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? SELL Yes 19¢ $115 102d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 43¢ $260 103d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? SELL Yes 95¢ $921 104d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? BUY Yes 94¢ $910 104d
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 104d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 47¢ $200 104d
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th BUY No 77¢ $200 104d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? SELL Yes 12¢ $59 104d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 105d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? SELL No 71¢ $157 105d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? SELL No 37¢ $52 105d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 105d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? BUY No 68¢ $150 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.76 · official $119.77 (match) · 67 history records