Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
89 0x89be…3d85 sports 297 markets active 9d ago coverage 813d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$305 (-1%) realized −$305 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%99W / 198L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$16
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$240
politics 27% −$23
other 19% −$14
culture 9% −$3
crypto 7% −$5
economics 4% −$2
tech 4% −$1
world 0% −$14
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 82 -16.2% -24.2% 45% 38% -24.2%
≤90d 86 -16.5% -24.5% 45% 38% -22.5%
all 297 -7.7% -16.5% 33% 28% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 28% -10.3%
10% -24.5% 22% -18.8%
15% -31.8% 19% -26.7%
20% -38.5% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

813d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses99 / 198
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)297 / 297
History coverage813d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 297 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Jun 20 $1 $0 +33%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Jun 20 $6 +$1 +11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $8 −$3 -38%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? Jun 20 $1 $0 -44%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 20 $5 −$4 -81%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -54%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Jun 20 $6 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $6 −$1 -23%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $6 −$1 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $6 +$3 +56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +41%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $2 +$2 +117%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +215%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -87%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $27 +$3 +12%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$4 +101%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $8 −$3 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +62%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$4 -34%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $9 $0 -5%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $8 −$7 -83%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $18 +$1 +5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 09 $12 −$2 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 9d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? SELL No $1 9d
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL Yes $1 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 9d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 95¢ $1 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $6 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $5 9d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 70¢ $7 9d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $5 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $1 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 10d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $1 10d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $1 10d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $3 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $0 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $4 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $1 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $2 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 78¢ $4 11d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 54¢ $3 11d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 63¢ $3 11d
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 36¢ $2 11d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 20¢ $1 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 724 history records