Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89bf…2c66 crypto 273 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,697 (-63%) realized −$10,701 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%84W / 326L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 93d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$3,731
sports 4% −$229
other 1% −$54
finance 0% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -73.1% -75.7% 10% 10% -92.3%
≤30d 199 -73.1% -75.7% 10% 10% -92.3%
≤90d 360 -38.3% -44.2% 18% 18% -82.6%
all 410 -27.1% -34.0% 20% 20% -79.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.0% 20% -79.5%
10% ← realistic here -40.3% 20% -81.4%
15% -46.1% 20% -83.2%
20% -51.4% 20% -84.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$159 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$10,701
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses84 / 326
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)410 / 273
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 308 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $681 −$681 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $238 −$238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 12AM ET Jun 23 $309 −$309 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 11AM ET Jun 23 $78 −$78 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $214 −$214 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $98 −$98 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-19? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $1,775 −$1,775 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$19 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $344 −$344 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $447 −$447 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7AM ET Jun 23 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $81 −$81 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $419 −$419 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 7AM ET Jun 23 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $308 −$308 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $264 −$264 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $6,814 −$6,814 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 10AM ET Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $410 −$410 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $242 −$242 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$35 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $896 −$896 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $921 −$921 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $1,056 −$1,056 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-28? Jun 23 $86 −$86 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $230 +$67 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $510 −$510 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.67 · official $69.67 (match) · 3500 history records