Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
89 0x89c5…70e2 crypto 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (203 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%37W / 28L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day203.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$326
sports 16% −$131
other 3% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (203 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +14.8% +3.9% 57% 55% -0.5%
≤30d 65 +14.8% +3.9% 57% 55% -0.5%
≤90d 65 +14.8% +3.9% 57% 55% -0.5%
all 65 +14.8% +3.9% 57% 55% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover203.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.9% 55% -0.5%
10% ← realistic here -6.1% 54% -10.0%
15% -15.2% 49% -18.7%
20% -23.5% 42% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses37 / 28
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day203.3
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 20¢ 26¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$20 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $56 +$37 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $121 +$69 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $111 +$84 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $47 +$41 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $41 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $63 +$55 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$12 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$12 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $38 +$30 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $18 +$9 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $29 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $58 +$16 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$6 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$11 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $7 +$6 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $12 +$7 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $24 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$40 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $32 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $45 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $93 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $56 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $22 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $19 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $50 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $74 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $121 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.50 · official $50.50 · 253 history records