Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89c5…24d1 sports 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$24 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%15W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$21
other 4% −$17
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +26.8% +14.7% 20% 20% -10.8%
≤30d 74 +26.8% +14.7% 20% 20% -10.8%
≤90d 74 +26.8% +14.7% 20% 20% -10.8%
all 74 +26.8% +14.7% 20% 20% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.7% 20% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here +3.7% 20% -19.3%
15% -6.3% 19% -27.1%
20% -15.5% 16% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +77% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$14 · ×3.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses15 / 59
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions7
Markets (closed)74 / 81
History coverage4d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 9¢ 11¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+22%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $2 $16 +$14 (+933%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 4¢ 4¢ $12 $13 +$2 (+13%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Over 5¢ 12¢ $5 $12 +$6 (+121%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Over 2¢ 2¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $15 −$1 -4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $4 −$2 -43%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $22 −$21 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $33 −$32 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $70 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $110 −$28 -25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $23 −$13 -57%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $6 $0 -4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $6 +$20 +330%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $24 −$22 -91%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $81 −$58 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -13%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $37 +$163 +442%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $8 +$92 +1095%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $45 −$44 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $43 −$42 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $43 −$42 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $12 +$7 +56%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -18%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $23 −$22 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $53 −$52 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $21 −$21 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $8 +$96 +1164%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $14 +$86 +596%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $22 +$8 +38%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 26m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 56m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $6 57m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 13¢ $25 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 5¢ $15 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 1¢ $2 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $2 8h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $2 8h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 8h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $12 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $16 8h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 8h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 8h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $12 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $3 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $16 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $42 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 9¢ $9 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 13¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 13¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 13¢ $6 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 13¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 13¢ $2 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 13¢ $6 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 13¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 22¢ $74 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.15 · official $76.15 (match) · 156 history records