Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x89ca…6679 crypto 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+3%) realized +$58 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate80%75W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$63
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +7.8% -2.5% 81% 64% -7.0%
≤30d 85 +7.8% -2.5% 81% 64% -7.0%
≤90d 94 +8.2% -2.1% 80% 64% -7.2%
all 94 +8.2% -2.1% 80% 64% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 64% -7.2%
10% -11.5% 40% -16.1%
15% -20.0% 20% -24.2%
20% -27.9% 11% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses75 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage43d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 81¢ 96¢ $75 $88 +$13 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$10 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $61 +$19 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $97 −$27 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $56 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $66 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $56 +$19 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$12 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $86 −$85 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $28 +$8 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $11 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.16 · official $70.62 · 283 history records