Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89cb…4fd8 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (383 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,118 (+16%) realized +$1,546 · open +$572
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$390per market
Trades / day382.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$2,775
crypto 46% −$111
sports 2% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (383 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +13.1% +2.3% 45% 41% +4.9%
≤30d 29 +13.1% +2.3% 45% 41% +4.9%
≤90d 29 +13.1% +2.3% 45% 41% +4.9%
all 29 +13.1% +2.3% 45% 41% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover382.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.3% 41% +4.9%
10% ← realistic here -7.5% 34% -5.1%
15% -16.4% 28% -14.3%
20% -24.6% 21% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$552) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$321 vs −$137 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,208
Realized+$1,546
Unrealized+$572
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$390
Trades / day382.9
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $284 $874 +$590 (+207%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $150 $135 −$15 (-10%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Morocco 38¢ 36¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $63 $64 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,480 +$471 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $946 −$500 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $257 +$187 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $1,005 −$72 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $970 −$86 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $551 +$268 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $501 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $231 +$126 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $340 +$48 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $374 +$134 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $270 +$72 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $106 +$61 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $261 −$28 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $172 −$120 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $617 +$382 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$28 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $113 −$113 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $71 −$71 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $552 −$552 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1,201 −$153 -13%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,236 −$42 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $174 +$1,473 +849%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $621 +$914 +147%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $296 −$20 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 77¢ $1,164 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $507 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $159 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $137 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $120 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $401 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $172 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $206 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $120 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,207.97 · official $1,307.97 · 433 history records