Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89cd…92b9 sports 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,029 (-7%) realized −$1,033 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%83W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$204
7 days+$193
14 days+$138
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,207
other 6% +$237
crypto 0% −$24
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +17.9% +6.7% 47% 40% +0.8%
≤30d 34 +6.9% -3.3% 41% 35% -12.0%
≤90d 127 -26.0% -33.1% 31% 30% -38.0%
all 182 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 42% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 42% -16.2%
10% -22.4% 40% -24.2%
15% -29.9% 32% -31.5%
20% -36.8% 25% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$49 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$1,033
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses83 / 99
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)182 / 185
History coverage142d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $67 $68 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $46 $49 +$3 (+6%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 50¢ 54¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $27 +$64 +236%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$4 -44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $58 −$46 -80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $131 +$58 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$6 +147%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $34 +$16 +47%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $33 +$21 +63%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $65 −$64 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$6 -47%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$14 +238%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 +$27 +122%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$36 -64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $353 +$206 +58%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $425 +$70 +16%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $80 +$3 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$55 +560%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $29 −$28 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$39 +109%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $27 +$57 +214%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $49 −$43 -87%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $54 −$54 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$1 -5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $114 −$103 -91%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $91 −$89 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 03 $10 +$39 +371%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 03 $27 +$22 +82%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $114 −$113 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 03 $19 −$14 -77%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 02 $112 +$185 +164%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 02 $85 −$84 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $31 −$31 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 01 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 01 $16 +$13 +87%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 01 $11 +$4 +39%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 01 $6 +$9 +152%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 47m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 53m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $16 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 11¢ $12 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $58 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 34¢ $5 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $5 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $188 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $81 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 28h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 50¢ $5 31h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $10 31h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $50 31h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 40¢ $4 32h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 53¢ $5 32h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $49 32h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 34¢ $35 33h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $5 33h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $24 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.68 · official $132.68 (match) · 859 history records