Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89cd…f197 sports 413 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-1%) realized −$75 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%173W / 239L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$53
14 days−$41
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$224
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -3.0% -12.2% 25% 17% -67.4%
≤30d 98 -6.8% -15.6% 39% 33% -16.5%
≤90d 403 +4.5% -5.4% 42% 40% -12.3%
all 412 +3.0% -6.8% 42% 39% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 39% -12.9%
10% -15.7% 37% -21.2%
15% -23.9% 34% -28.8%
20% -31.3% 27% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$75
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses173 / 239
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions1
Markets (closed)412 / 413
History coverage104d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 74¢ 72¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 259 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $13 −$12 -98%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $24 −$2 -7%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $12 $0 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $8 $0 +0%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $13 −$1 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $4 $0 +11%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $6 +$10 +162%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $7 −$7 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $12 +$19 +156%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $12 +$1 +5%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $11 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $18 −$2 -14%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $27 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $18 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $27 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $24 +$19 +77%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $13 +$10 +78%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $21 +$18 +87%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $18 −$18 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $16 +$14 +86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $12 $0 -4%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $11 −$1 -9%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$22 +143%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $19 +$17 +91%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $26 +$18 +71%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$9 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$3 +23%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $16 −$3 -19%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$14 +70%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $26 +$20 +74%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $37 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ $13 9h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $12 9h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 6¢ $2 10h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 95¢ $19 10h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 80¢ $24 10h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $11 10h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $0 10h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $12 10h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 18¢ $9 11h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 49¢ $12 12h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 24¢ $12 12h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 9¢ $5 13h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 19¢ $5 13h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 19¢ $5 13h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 30¢ $8 32h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 15¢ $8 32h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $6 33h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 3¢ $1 34h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 45¢ $5 34h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 45¢ $2 34h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 45¢ $6 34h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $5 34h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $5 34h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $2 34h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 20¢ $5 35h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 9¢ $4 35h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 78¢ $10 36h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 24¢ $6 36h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 12¢ $6 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.75 · official $35.75 (match) · 956 history records