Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x89cf…5f47 sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,976 (+4%) realized +$1,711 · open +$265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%52W / 52L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$496per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,022now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,629
7 days+$1,212
14 days+$887
30 days−$492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$6,628
other 30% −$983
economics 4% −$1,567
crypto 3% −$679
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +19.1% +7.8% 56% 56% +10.6%
≤30d 25 -2.2% -11.5% 48% 48% -14.6%
≤90d 25 -2.2% -11.5% 48% 48% -14.6%
all 104 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 50% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 50% -4.2%
10% -21.6% 50% -13.3%
15% -29.2% 50% -21.7%
20% -36.1% 44% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$599) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$465 vs −$405 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$1,022
Realized+$1,711
Unrealized+$265
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses52 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 111
History coverage160d
Avg bet$496
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 70¢ $396 $465 +$69 (+18%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 96¢ $216 $375 +$159 (+74%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $145 $182 +$37 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $599 +$286 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $344 +$317 +92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $199 +$375 +188%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win o Jun 20 $303 +$539 +178%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $130 −$128 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $206 +$134 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $180 −$177 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $195 +$285 +146%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $429 −$423 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $197 +$276 +140%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $404 +$425 +105%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 −$97 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $321 −$321 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $508 +$524 +103%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $303 +$241 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $497 −$491 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $199 −$196 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $471 −$466 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o Jun 13 $299 +$170 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $796 +$347 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $183 −$180 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $991 −$981 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $405 −$398 -98%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $887 −$887 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 12 $585 −$585 -100%
Heat vs. Pelicans Feb 12 $761 +$824 +108%
Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5 Feb 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $992 +$769 +78%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-7.5) Feb 10 $732 −$732 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $300 +$231 +77%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $1,029 −$1,029 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Ch Feb 10 $328 +$201 +61%
AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 Feb 10 $141 +$159 +113%
Bulls vs. Nets Feb 09 $372 −$372 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $390 +$151 +39%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $1,625 +$765 +47%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $701 +$425 +61%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Feb 08 $589 +$698 +119%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner Feb 08 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $301 −$301 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 08 $543 +$347 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight, Main Feb 08 $300 +$432 +144%
Rockets vs. Thunder Feb 07 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Feb 07 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 07 $2,735 +$1,676 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 62¢ $502 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $219 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $401 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $300 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $299 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $199 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 51¢ $344 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $130 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $206 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win o BUY 35¢ $303 31h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 44¢ $180 43h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 40¢ $195 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 36¢ $378 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $429 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $99 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $197 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $404 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL 0¢ $0 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 27¢ $321 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $303 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 48¢ $508 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $497 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $507 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14 BUY 47¢ $294 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $199 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 40¢ $198 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $471 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o BUY 63¢ $299 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $149 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,022.02 · official $1,540.49 · 216 history records