Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
89 0x89d2…7a0c sports 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,158 (+22%) realized +$1,177 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$2,055
other 19% −$887
crypto 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +30.0% +17.6% 28% 28% +17.6%
≤30d 47 +30.0% +17.6% 28% 28% +17.6%
≤90d 47 +30.0% +17.6% 28% 28% +17.6%
all 47 +30.0% +17.6% 28% 28% +17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.6% 28% +17.6%
10% ← realistic here +6.3% 28% +6.4%
15% -3.9% 28% -3.9%
20% -13.4% 28% -13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$281 vs −$74 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$1,177
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 57
History coverage3d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Over 10¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $90 $76 −$14 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $33 −$33 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $62 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $95 −$93 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $39 −$38 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $102 +$453 +442%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $102 +$183 +180%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $103 +$595 +579%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $82 −$80 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $205 +$596 +290%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $102 +$242 +237%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $57 −$55 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $82 −$80 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $53 −$52 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $102 +$243 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$100 -49%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $19 +$258 +1396%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $51 +$364 +709%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$282 +276%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $79 +$126 +158%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $99 −$97 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 9¢ $93 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $103 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st BUY 34¢ $204 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil BUY 13¢ $197 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $103 12h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $33 13h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Morocco: BUY 7¢ $103 13h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $62 14h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 14h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $95 14h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $102 14h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 14h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $29 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Exact Score: U BUY 4¢ $67 21h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND United States vs. BUY 26¢ $153 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Australia: BUY 12¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $39 35h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Mexico vs. Korea BUY 20¢ $205 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $102 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $103 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $555 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $285 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 57¢ $697 35h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $61 38h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $102 38h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $103 38h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $82 38h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 38h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AN BUY 17¢ $154 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.06 · official $371.06 · 76 history records