Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:14:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x89d6…f4dc
sports · 424 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$106 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$147 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$293
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses245 / 149
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions29
Markets (closed)394 / 424
History coverage234d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 29 History 394 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$353
7 days−$222
14 days−$230
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 78¢ $70 $67 −$4 (-5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 86¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 50¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-5%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 91¢ 87¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 63¢ 60¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 63¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 92¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 90¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 87¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 60¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 78¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+18%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Ghana be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 91¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $46 −$3 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$37 -90%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $93 −$93 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $17 −$14 -80%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Ann Li Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro Leag Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $8 +$1 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$3 +12%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $41 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 14 $41 +$17 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $146 +$55 +38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 $0 +11%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $39 +$2 +5%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 $0 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $134 +$3 +2%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$1 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $98 +$10 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$1 +10%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $41 −$10 -24%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 $0 +3%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $43 +$7 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 +$1 +9%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 13 $22 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $18 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $22 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 41% −$240
politics 18% −$23
world 16% −$35
other 14% +$164
culture 8% −$26
weather 1% +$2
finance 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$4
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 1m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 61¢ $4 57m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 70¢ $15 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 66¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 66¢ $11 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 57¢ $3 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $3 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 88¢ $32 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 88¢ $2 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 90¢ $2 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 90¢ $1 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 90¢ $2 3h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 4h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $40 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 88¢ $4 5h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) SELL Spurs 64¢ $42 5h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 60¢ $39 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $12 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 72¢ $7 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 61¢ $6 9h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 89¢ $41 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 78¢ $4 10h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -6.3% -15.2% 63% 24% -16.3%
≤30d 351 -4.9% -13.9% 62% 34% -14.6%
≤90d 354 -5.0% -14.1% 62% 34% -10.4%
all 394 -5.7% -14.7% 62% 34% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 34% -11.4%
10% -22.8% 14% -19.8%
15% -30.3% 10% -27.6%
20% -37.1% 5% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.84 · official $291.44 (match) · 1352 history records