Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89d8…16db crypto 441 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$459 (-4%) realized −$459 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate92%407W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$20
14 days+$33
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$196
sports 18% −$138
other 11% −$206
finance 5% +$11
politics 1% +$64
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 211 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 421 -6.2% -15.2% 92% 0% -25.4%
all 441 -2.9% -12.1% 92% 5% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 5% -13.3%
10% -20.5% 4% -21.6%
15% -28.2% 3% -29.2%
20% -35.3% 2% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$50 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$459
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses407 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)441 / 441
History coverage243d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 441 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 27? Jun 27 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27? Jun 27 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $16 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET Jun 24 $43 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $49 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $24 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $8 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $11 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $13 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $43 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $24 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.00 · official $60.00 (match) · 2250 history records